Thoughts after the first decade of the 21st century.
By Thanos Stasinopouloshttp://www.greekarchitects.gr/gr/home
"One of the glaring ironies of modern education is that schools try to prepare students to live in a time that does not yet exist by concentrating their studies on a time that has ceased to exist."
That quote by Ronald LaConte dates from 1975; it refers to secondary education, but the same is true for architectural studies, then as much as now. Given the fact that architecture reflects its era, a question is raised: what kind of future today's young architects are being trained to build in 30-40 years? In what sort of social and physical environment they will be working, for what kind of clientele, in what legal context, with what objectives? And how such aspects should influence the curriculum today?
Of course questions of that kind are not confined to architecture, but they extend more or less to all sectors of human activity. Hence the long-term forecasts --no matter how close they might be to prophecies-- involve serious organizations that guide the fate of humanity, such as the UN. The Environment Programme [UNEP] of the world organization has published several scientific reports on the environmental situation around the globe, trying to predict future developments. Those reports examine the interaction of social-economic situations and various environmental parameters, as well as probable trends in the future.
Such a multi-page report was released in 2002 entitled 'Global Environment Outlook, GEO-3'. After an extensive analysis of the environmental conditions in various regions, the report presents four scenarios for the year 2032 exploring how the current social and economic trends might evolve by then, and what that means for the environment and the welfare of mankind. Each scenario examines different policy approaches and choices of society, giving priority to markets, politics, security, or sustainability.
Nine years after the publication of GEO-3, it is interesting to compare the forecasts against current reality, which may shed light on the path we have taken during the first decade of the 21st century that just ended. Let's see a brief description of the four scenarios in the report:
That quote by Ronald LaConte dates from 1975; it refers to secondary education, but the same is true for architectural studies, then as much as now. Given the fact that architecture reflects its era, a question is raised: what kind of future today's young architects are being trained to build in 30-40 years? In what sort of social and physical environment they will be working, for what kind of clientele, in what legal context, with what objectives? And how such aspects should influence the curriculum today?
Of course questions of that kind are not confined to architecture, but they extend more or less to all sectors of human activity. Hence the long-term forecasts --no matter how close they might be to prophecies-- involve serious organizations that guide the fate of humanity, such as the UN. The Environment Programme [UNEP] of the world organization has published several scientific reports on the environmental situation around the globe, trying to predict future developments. Those reports examine the interaction of social-economic situations and various environmental parameters, as well as probable trends in the future.
Such a multi-page report was released in 2002 entitled 'Global Environment Outlook, GEO-3'. After an extensive analysis of the environmental conditions in various regions, the report presents four scenarios for the year 2032 exploring how the current social and economic trends might evolve by then, and what that means for the environment and the welfare of mankind. Each scenario examines different policy approaches and choices of society, giving priority to markets, politics, security, or sustainability.
Nine years after the publication of GEO-3, it is interesting to compare the forecasts against current reality, which may shed light on the path we have taken during the first decade of the 21st century that just ended. Let's see a brief description of the four scenarios in the report:
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